Given the freedom of speech, I write this article NOT from the ANTI-Russian perspective. I am aware that many civilians (2000 plus at the time of writing) have died in face of the Russian attacks. Some of my friends have fled Georgia, while some still stay in the country. At the moment, Tbilisi declared the cease fire, and yet the United Nations Security Council seems to be going nowhere with a solution to the conflict.
First of all, I give my sincere sympathy toward those who lost family, friends, and houses. Regardless of their nationality, we need to help those victims of power politics. Moreover, I pray for those who lost their lives in the madness of war. Today, the way to the heaven is clouded by the Georgians, Ossetians, and even Russians who believed their leaders were doing the right thing. Those who lost lives are not guilty of this chaos: let us not forget them.
Second aspect I would like to point out is that “right” or “wrong” means little in a war. Even if the Georgian act of “retaking” South Ossetia is “right,” this “rightness” diminishes in front of the massive casualties. Given the fact that Russia has more tanks, ships, airplanes, and soldiers than Georgia, this operation in South Ossetia is a tactical and strategic mistake (even immoral, I think). Moreover, Tbilisi, hours before the attack, declared the cease fire unilaterally and broke it in the morning of 8th August. There are some reports that the Russian Air Force bombed small villages before the Georgian attack took place (and thus, implying legitimate retaliation). Yet, the remaining fact is that Tbilisi committed military actions hours AFTER the cease fire declaration (which was not officially accepted by South Ossetia) and the operation was conducted without prior diplomatic efforts with the United Nations.
Third, Russia has the right to intervene as there are many Russian citizens in South Ossetia. I am not going to legitimize the Russian position on the “peacekeeping” role: that is a different issue. But, one thing for sure is that as Russian citizens in South Ossetia were attacked by Georgia, Russia has the right to protect them. Once again, there is possibility that Russia provoked Georgia. Even so, Georgia should have considered that Russia would attack once Georgia launched offensive operations.
Lastly, some assume that Tbilisi was expecting stronger international support, possibly military intervention by NATO. However, as all political leaders were in Beijing attending the Olympic ceremony, such assumption seems fragile. On the contrary, Tbilisi might have assumed that Russia would react slowly given the Olympic condition. Prime Minister Putin, however, was in Moscow.
At last, Russia does not have the right to overthrow the Georgian government. As Russia had been the one who accused the American approach in Iraq, Russia should know at least on the rhetoric. That said, the fact that Georgia attacked South Ossetia without prior diplomatic consensus with the United Nations puts Georgia in a weak position. This was NOT a unilateral invasion by Russia into Georgia as anti-Russian media reports. It was a military conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia in which Russian citizens were involved. It looks like an invasion because the Russian Army and Air Force were overwhelming. Russia even moved the Black Sea Fleet for economic sanction against Georgia. As Georgia ceased fire, such aggressive actions by Russia are no longer necessary. Thus, it is high time to negotiate and to start the reconstruction of the “society of the people” - not the “territory of (some) nationals.”
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August 11th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Correction: Prime Minister Putin was in fact in Beijing. On the other hand, President Medvedev seemed to be in Moscow.
Additional note: As Tbilisi decleared the cease fire, Russia should accept it in order to prevent escalating the conflict. Again, Russia does not have the right to “occupy” Georgia, even though Russia is a primary actor in the region.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Although you are trying to mask it as if you are neutral and just judging based on reason, Mr. Hashimoto, you clearly are not! You either have personal interests in supprting Russia or your analytical skills are not as brilliant as you probably think and maybe you should consider taking up a career in music or pastel drawing. I’m sure you’ll be better at that.
Since the tensions in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia started escalating on August 7, a lot has been said and written about the causes, reasons, short and longer-term outcomes of this war between Georgia and Russia. Who provoked the tensions, what were the intentions, strategies and goals - are the questions that parties of the conflict - Georgia and Russia answer differently.
By now, after many civilians and the military have been killed, after thousands of people were forced to escape their after cities all over Georgia have been bombed, after all strategic objects in Georgia have been destroyed, after the capital of South Ossetia - Tskhinvali has been practically erased from the face of earth, after military aggression in another breakaway region of Abkhazia is growing,
now one thing should be clear for everyone: there is only one country, one government who expects benefits form this war, and the name of this country is Russia. There should be no doubts by now that this war has been planned, prepared, is being carried out and will be successfuly completed by Russia if noone dares to interfere.
The goal of the Russian government is too obvious: not to let Georgia - which has been the most “disobidient” of all among former Soviet republics (other than Baltic states) - get out of its influence. Gaining full independece from Russia has been the biggest goal of Georgia for quite some time now, and restoring territorial integrity of the country is directly related this.
The key to all the tensions in the region is that the big bear just cannot put up with the idea that the “unbreakable Union of freeborn republics” exists no longer, and actually does not mind the former soviet countries’ being officially independent as long as they play in tune with the imperialistic aspirations of the big neighbor. But as soon as someone starts to play out of that tune, the response is immediate, strong and horrifying. The Baltic states, thanks to the fortunate geographic location and a longer history of independence before being occupied by Soviet Russia, managed to escape and ally with the West. Georgia, taking this example, decided to follow the same path.
The country has been making slow but steady progress towards this goal during the last several years. Significant efforts were taken for reforming the defense system and the army to bring it up to advanced international standards and paving the way towards NATO membership. Compying with all the requirements teh country was ready by April this year to receive NATO Membership Action Plan. Unfortunately, some European countries failed to support Georgia against Russia’s determination not allow NATO’s presence in its immediate neighborhood and refused to grant MAP to the country.
This refusal was seen as a green light for exercising direct military aggression against Georgia. Russian aggression was triggered by the fact that a numebr of NATO members explicitly stated that Georgia would be granted MAP in December, at the nest NATO summit. It’s hard to fail to see the connection between this promise and Russia’s bombing of military basis all over the country, far beyond the conflict zone. The goal of our “kind neighbor” is clear: to destroy Georgian strategic infrastructure so that at least for several years it will not have a chance to hope for NATO membership.
Russia probably also decided that now is the time to attack because of the internal political situation of the main ally and supporter of Georgia the US. The President of the US, to be replaced very soon, may not be so eager to get in an open confrontation with Russia, attention of the most of the world is focused on the Olympics. Probably another reason for Russia related to the Olympics for the speedy “regulation” of situation near its borders is the anticipation of 2014 Olympics to be held in Sochi - right next to the border of the breakaway Abhazia. The sooner Russia “deals” with Georgia the higher are chances that Sochi 2014 will run smoothly.
Any post-soviet republic which will try to get out of Russian bonds will share the same fate with Georgia. The failure of international diplomacy to foresee, prevent and stop the full-fledge military aggression of one country towards another should be an alert for all advanced democracies around the world. If the uncontrolled military aggression demonstrated right on the border of the European Union goes unpunished this aggression might move inside these borders at any time and create unpredictable prospects for the future of the political order of the world.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Before I start writing, I shall assume the reader’s knowledge that escalated armed conflict in South Ossetia was not a war waged against South Ossetia per se but against Russian Federation.
It has been a carefully planned provocation against Georgia. Resurgence of conflict in the South Ossetia was a mean to declare war against Georgia with an aim to annex its territories. Yet, Georgia from the early start of the conflict knew it had to deal with the ramping aggression of Russia, however, Georgia had a legitimate responsibility to intervene, retaliate and protect its own citizens residing on its own territory.
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It is now have realized that often so-called-experts embracing the right of freedom of expression do more harm to the society rather than not referring to that right at all. Making claims based on unexamined data and showing negligence in making serious statements distorts the facts and hence misleads the society.
I shall be short in addressing three points listed in this article:
(1) Allegations on Tbilisi breaking up the fire first against the South Ossetia; (2) Tbilisi violating the ceasefire; (3) Russia having the legitimacy to intervene in the name to protect their citizens.
Firstly, it should not be me, a humble Georgian citizen teaching an expert that every serious claim shall be based on a legitimate source.
Debate on who was the first should be built on documented facts. Moreover, the UN and OSCE missions mandated to monitor and investigate the facts on conflict escalation still have a final say.
Serious allegations however, shall not be based on expert’s wishful thoughts to vindicate the argument against Georgia. Yet, The Ministry of Interior of Georgia claims that Georgian side has opened a fire in response to the shelling of Georgian village on 2 August. Why not the expert does builds his claims on this statements then?
Noteworthy, to mention that in 2007 at OSCE Media Review, Russia put a veto on Georgian proposal to increase the number of monitors at South Ossetia border. As hostilities become to emerge in early August, South Ossetia de facto administration has downsized the role to increase peacekeepers in the region.
The expert widely manipulates with Olympic game date, assuming Georgia has started war, relaying on slow response on the day of the Olympic opening ceremony. If it, by any chance puts any validity to my argument, let me say that little does the expert know that President Saakashvili himself was taking off for Beijing on the day war broke up in South Ossetia. A decision has been changed twenty minutes prior to his departure as the news on resurged hostilities in the region has been reported.
Secondly, let me clarify the sequence of events on the Day of 8 August regarding the allegations against Georgia breaching on the ceasefire. Georgia has unilaterally halted the military operation for three hours on that day to allow the civilians to leave the region. Needless to say, that Russians have blocked proposal on creating the humanitarian corridor. Russian troops however, refused to cease fire and continued shilling Tskinvali targeting civilians. The fighting has been resumed by the Georgia side after expiration of three hour truce as 1,500 armed Russian armored vehicles advanced through Roki Valley in Georgia.
Moreover, after official declaration of halt on fire on 13 August by the Russian side, Russia continued bombing Georgian regions. An area near the town of Gori was bombed twice that day. Keda was reported to be under heavily bombardment. A Dutch television cameraman was killed by a shell. The Times was shown a fragment of what appeared to be a Grad missile that had struck an apartment building behind the main square. Several vessels were exploded in the Black sea port. Russia have been purposefully damaging economic infrastructure of Georgia as its troops now leave Georgian territory.
As I am writing the article, Georgian villages next to Gori are being looted by Russians and Georgian civilians are killed. A Friend received tens of calls from Georgian villages located next to Tskinvali region asking for help as residents of the villages are looted, robbed and brutally killed.
The expert does not have the information as to how Russians have assumed most of the Russian citizens in the Tskinvali region? A part of Russia’s annexation policy included issuing the Russian passports to ethnic Ossetia’s who often hold two passports and use Georgian and Russian passports upon the convenience.
Finally, I doubt the expert understands the proportionality of the Russian military actions taken against Georgia. It is by the same token he forgets about the existence of the international criminal court and its role to adjudicate on genocide or the war crime committers.
The military actions taken against Georgia to defend Russian’s citizens was not proportional. Starting war under the aegis of protecting its citizens unilaterally was unlawful and was in breach of International law. The allegations about Georgia committing the genocide of ethnic Ossetia’s been ridiculously ill formulated and refuted at the United Nationa’s Security Council. The International Criminal Court, however, have accepted the lawsuit of Georgia alleging Russia on ethnic cleansing on 1993 and 2008.
If he, the so–called-expert does not understand the universality of the International principles mentioned above, however my respect shall be for him; Under no circumstances I shall vest my interest neither in his further arguments nor in his other publications.
August 15th, 2008 at 5:47 am
Thank you for the comments, both of you.
First, let me answer the following sentences from the comment.
“You either have personal interests in supprting Russia or your analytical skills are not as brilliant as you probably think and maybe you should consider taking up a career in music or pastel drawing. I’m sure you’ll be better at that.”
Certainly, I am pro-Russian in general, but I “tried” to maintain the neutrality as much as I can in this article. As long as I have freedom of speech and vocation, I choose a career in politics. Plus, there are many musicians and artists who joined politics and made policies of governments. My analytical skills seem to be confirmed by several offers from newspapers and organizations. So, thank you for your concern.
In terms of more fruitful arguments, I agree with both of you that the Russian government (or the Soviet) had a plan to take over Georgia. However, I must emphasize that both the US and Russia are likely to have the “taking-over” scenarios for every country. The “scenario” in Georgia was one out of thousands of them. Almost no one in the world assumed that Saakashvili would move the entire army deep into the front line. The defense (especially, air defense) in Tbilisi was null, and NATO air-base in near-by Turkey did not react to the Russian air operations. Thus, “it-was-carefully-planned” argument seems to rely on the situation in which literally thousands of assumptions of the planners became true. I think the operation in Georgia was rather reactional, and Moscow pushed forward to see how much she could gain before the US seriously involved.
To conclude, there are three points I raise. First, today’s politics is still largely based on the politics of big powers (i.e. the US, Russia, and China). Second, international law or morality has little to do with the politics of big powers: detterrance seems to be the only key. Lastly, all conspiracy theories could be true as long as one agrees with the following statement: the scenario used was just one of thousands scenarios written.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:58 am
Tom, owing to the fact that i know you personally i shall not deride your analytical skills nor due to the fact i have better things to do shall i debate your whole argument. However what does worry me is you complete inability to comprehend international law in anyway. A statement such as ‘international law or morality has little to do with the politics of big powers’ is simply in every possible way WRONG. International law is observed nearly all the time, when the law is observed you do not hear about it, it is only during situations of crisis such as in Georgia when differing interpretations of law are brought to the fore that its contestation become visible. It should also be noted that Russia has attempted to highlight that its actions are in support of the principles of international law. most people (including myself) find such an argument laughable. however, regardless, my point is that when using you ‘powerful analytical skills’ try not to make absolute statements such as this which undermine the credibility of any argument you are trying to make.